I want to offer a few propositions for where our country is politically after this week’s round of primary voting, mainly in the South.
President Donald Trump continues to destroy the careers of those Republican politicians who demonstrate independent judgment. The latest victims are Rep. Thomas Massie (Kentucky) and Sen Bill Cassidy (Louisiana).
These exercises of power and vengeance both reduce the number of GOP politicians who ever will critique, check or limit the president’s actions, and also teach the very important lesson that this is a president to be feared. Trump has a long memory, he never forgives, and he relishes not just defeating but humiliating those who cross him.
Having badly undermined the independence of the Justice Department, Trump is now attempting an unprecedented money grab through his “anti-weaponization” fund of nearly $1.8 billion, approved by the Justice Department, to be used for “paying the legal expenses” of anyone the Biden Justice Department ever prosecuted, including potentially January 6 insurrectionists. A supplement to the deal also promises immunity from IRS audits for Trump, his family members and his businesses.
These actions, if allowed to continue in broad daylight, will compete for the prize of the single most corrupt action of the most corrupt presidential administration in U.S. history. They also violate the most cardinal principle in a democracy, that no one is above the law.
Trump’s very low approval ratings (37% in the most recent New York Times poll) indicate the GOP could very well find itself in the minority in the U.S. Congress (despite aggressive gerrymandering), and therefore the party (of corruption and malfeasance) may be over by the end of 2026.
In these circumstances, administration actions have the stench of late-stage corruption — the behavior of a governing movement uncertain about its long-term political future and eager to consolidate advantage while it can.
But the Trump-dominated Republican Party being checked, and the corruption party being over, through the will of the voters in November depends upon the will of the voters in November being honored — even if (gasp) the voters choose Democrats over Republicans. This merely involves honoring the other most cardinal principle in a democracy, that of free and fair elections whose results are honored.
“Here is where we face the two primary questions that lie ahead of us as November draws nearer.”
And here is where we face the two primary questions that lie ahead of us as November draws nearer.
First, will Trump and his supporters attempt to overturn the results of the November 2026 elections so his party cannot lose its majorities even if that is the will of the electorate?
Second, if so, as seems at least quite possible, will the surviving pro-democratic forces in the U.S., including the opposition Democratic Party, Republican Party people of courage, civil society groups, state government leaders, the courts and the public be able to prevent the subverting of the elections in November?
Does anybody still play Hearts? At our house, we do play Hearts now and then. In this card game, normally played by four people, you try to avoid taking any or many hearts (1 point per card) or the Queen of Spades (13 nasty points). The lowest score wins when one player crosses 100 total points.
However, there is a really fun provision to Hearts whereby if you manage to fool everyone else about your intentions for long enough, and you aim to take every single point, and you succeed in having all 26 points in your pile at the end, you get 0 points and all your opponents get 26.
This is called “shooting the moon,” and it is a killer play but devilishly hard to achieve. You usually must have just the right cards to start off with and must play them with consummate skill, while also playing against inattentive or sloppy opponents.
I often have thought of the Hearts analogy with Trump. In 2020, he lost the election and then tried to shoot the moon to stay in office. But he didn’t have the cards, and people gradually caught on to what he was doing, and he left Washington not just defeated but impeached for his efforts.
If he tries to “shoot the moon” in November 2026 (or 2028!) no one can say we weren’t warned. He has a better hand than he did in 2020, in some ways — a compliant GOP Congress, a compromised Justice Department and more. But he also has a 37% approval rating that might sink lower if inflation continues to rise and the war drags on. It is hard to imagine shooting the moon with a 37% approval rating; that’s too many losing elections in too many places to try to subvert, ignore or challenge.
All Americans who are committed to democracy, of whatever party, need to be extra vigilant for the next six months for signs of a president, and a party, ready to “shoot the moon” and overturn the results of the elections in November.
